Regional disparities in COVID-19 case fatality rates: A comparative analysis of Nigerian Geopolitical Regions in 2020 and 2023

Abstract

In December 2019, first case of COVID-19 was documented in the Wuhan, China. The symptoms commonly associated with COVID-19 include cough, fever, fatigue, and breathing difficulties. In 30th January 2020, the WHO declared COVID-19 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. The coronavirus entered Nigeria through an infected Italian citizen who came in contact with a Nigerian citizen who was subsequently infected with the coronavirus. The coronavirus then spread to other citizens in Lagos and to other parts of the country. This study focuses on analysing the Case fatality rates (CFR) of COVID-19 in different geopolitical regions of Nigeria in the years 2020 and 2023. The regions considered are North Central, North East, North West, South South, South West and South East. This was a retrospective study using national surveillance data collected from all 36 States and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in Nigeria. Epidemiological indices of COVID-19 of 12th July, 2020 and data as at 26th February, 2023 were downloaded from the official update database of the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) and World Health Organisation (WHO) weekly report within the same period of this study The confirmed cases and deaths were extracted directly while the Case fatality rates (CFR) were computed. The total confirmed cases, death cases, and Cases Fatality Rates (CFR) as at 12th July 2020 was 31,323, 706 and 2.3% respectively. However, in 2023, the values had changed to 440,139 confirmed cases, 3156 death cases an a CRF of 0.7% respectively. The North Central region was observed to have the highest fatality rate of 62.1% and 47.2% in 2020 and 2023 respectively. The North East accounted for 32.5% and 12.6%, Noth West 36.4% and 16.4%, South- South, 37.5% and 12.4%, South East 16.9% and 4.7% and South West 15.4% and 10.1% respectively in 2020 and 2023. The 6 geopolitical regions of the country experience decrease at different proportion in Case Fatality Rates and this can be attributed to various factors, including increased vaccination coverage, better understanding of the virus, improved healthcare infrastructure and more effective public health measures. Despite the decrease in case fatality rate, regional disparities still exist which may be linked to underlying socioeconomic and healthcare disparities between regions. Addressing these disparities is crucial for a more equitable response to future pandemics