Regional difference and driving factors of industrial carbon emissions performance in China

Abstract

Industry is the pillar of China’s national economy. The energy-saving and emission reduction in the industrial sector directly bear on the sustainable development of the whole country. This paper sets up an evaluation index system for industrial carbon emissions performance (ICEP), and then evaluates the ICEPs in 30 Chinese provinces from 2003 to 2017, using the stochastic block model (SBM). Based on the regional difference of the ICEP, a Tobit model was established to identify the driving factors of the ICEP. The main results are as follows: (1) There are obvious provincial differences in the ICEP: coastal provinces (e.g. Zhejiang, Shanghai, Beijing, Jiangsu, and Guangdong) had relatively high ICEPs, while inland provinces (e.g. Yunnan, Guizhou, Ningxia, Shanxi and Qinghai) had undesirable ICEPs. (2) The three regions of China can be ranked as eastern region, central region, and western region in descending order of the ICEP. The central and western regions should be focused to promote energy-saving and emission reduction in the industrial sector. (3) The ICEP clustering shows that the ICEPs were medium and low in most provinces, and high in very few provinces. (4) Regression results of the Tobit model demonstrate that different driving factors have varied effects on the ICEP: economic development, technical progress, and foreign trade have significant positive effects on the ICEP, while energy structure and environmental regulation have significant negative effects on the ICEP.