Regional Conflict in Southern Africa and the Role of Third Party Mediators

Abstract

'A momentous turning point in the history of southern Africa.'1 Those were the words used by the United States secretary of state, George Shultz, to describe the two peace accords signed in New York on 22 December 1988 by Angola, Cuba, and South Africa. The culmination of over ten years of American-mediated peace negotiations, the accords set the stage for the independence of Namibia and the withdrawal of Cuban troops from Angola.2 This paper asks whether the accords do indeed constitute a 'momentous turning point' in regional security relations in southern Africa. Specifically, is the era of destabilization by South Africa ending and one of mutual accommodation and cooperation beginning? Or, to put the same question in theoretical terms, are we witnessing the emergence of a regional security regime in southern Africa? The answer to these questions partly turns upon the definition of key terms and concepts in the literature on regime theory. Therefore the first section of this paper defines the concept of security regime, advances a minimum criterion for one to exist, and discusses the conditions under which one is likely to emerge. The second section then reviews the history of security relations in the southern African complex. This review demonstrates that there are certainly explicit and tacit rules of interstate behaviour