Abstract
Projections of regional changes in surface-air temperature and precipitation, in response to unconstrained emissions as well as a climate mitigation policy, for the Zambezi River Basin (ZRB) are presented. These projections are cast in a probabilistic context through a hybrid technique that combines the projections of the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) to pattern-change kernels from climate-model results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Distributional changes of precipitation and surface-air temperature averaged over the western and eastern ZRB are considered. Overall, the most significant response to climate policy is seen in the spring. Frequency distributions of precipitation change for the unconstrained emission scenario indicate a majority of the outcomes to be drier by 2050, although the distribution spans both increased and decreased precipitation. Through climate policy, the distributions’ total range of outcomes collapses considerably, and perhaps more importantly, the mode of the distribution aligns with zero precipitation change. For surface-air temperature, climate policy consistently reduces the modal value of warming, and this reduction is strongest for the western ZRB. Climate policy also considerably abates the occurrence of the most extreme temperature increases, but the minimum warming in the distributions is less affected.
Highlights
Growing demands for climate-change vulnerability assessments and adaptation strategies have placed a need for risk-based quantification of regional change
In the sections that follow we present a summary of the methodology and climate-change distributions constructed for these multi-disciplinary model experiments and assessments. The construction of these distributions is based on a “hybrid” approach, which combines large ensemble simulations using an intermediate complexity earth-system model and pattern-change kernels derived from climate-model results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3, Meehl et al 2007)
We present results for the unconstrained emissions (UCE) case and a modest greenhouse gas stabilization scenario in which an equivalent CO2 concentration of ~650 ppm is achieved by the end of the century – and is referred to as the “Level 2 stabilization” (L2S) policy in Webster et al (2011)
Summary
Growing demands for climate-change vulnerability assessments and adaptation strategies have placed a need for risk-based quantification of regional change. Zambezi River Basin (ZRB) that quantifies the likelihood of changes in precipitation and surface-air temperature through the middle of this century These probabilistic climate projections have been prepared as inputs into a linked model framework with the goal to assess the impacts of future changes in climate and global policy on the economic activity of Mozambique. In the sections that follow we present a summary of the methodology and climate-change distributions constructed for these multi-disciplinary model experiments and assessments The construction of these distributions is based on a “hybrid” approach, which combines large ensemble simulations using an intermediate complexity earth-system model and pattern-change kernels derived from climate-model results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3, Meehl et al 2007).
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