Abstract
In this study, the regional variations of climate extremes and its possible impact on rice yield in Jiangsu province, southeast China were investigated. A total of 18 climate extremes indices (CEI) of rice-growing period (May–October) based on the daily climate records and rice yield data at 52 stations during 1961–2012 were calculated and analyzed. The main findings were as follows: (1) due to the remarked regional differences of climate extremes, Jiangsu could be divided into six climatic subregions: westernmost, northwest, north, southwest, south, and southeast corner; (2) trends of 18 indices in the six subregions using Mann–Kendall test indicated that Jiangsu was dominated by an obvious wetting and warming tendency, especially in the southern area; (3) correlation analysis between rice yield and CEI using first-difference and climate-induced yield method showed that the negative influences of precipitation extremes were more notable compared to temperature extremes; (4) P95 [precipitation due to very wet days (> 95th percentile)] should be selected as a key meteorological disasters indicator affecting rice yield in the northwest, north, southwest, and south Jiangsu; (5) the increase of P95 since 1990s was detected in most of Jiangsu, which would bring huge risks to rice growing.
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