Regional Carbon Emission Forecasting Model Considering Temporal Characteristics and Analysis of Peak Carbon Assessment in Typical Scenarios

Abstract

Leading high-quality economic development with green development is an important development concept for Chinese-style modernization, and achieving the dual-carbon goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is a key initiative to promote high-quality economic and social development. In order to explore the correlation between carbon emissions and population, economy and energy consumption, and to propose a reasonable carbon emissions prediction model, this paper proposes an evaluation index system integrating fossil energy consumption and new energy consumption by analyzing the sample data obtained from the research in a hierarchical, industry- and sector-specific manner. And then, we compare the reliability of the results obtained from the multiple linear regression prediction model based on the above index system and the Kaya carbon emissions prediction model, respectively. By comparing the reliability of the results obtained from the carbon emission multiple linear regression prediction model based on the above index system and the Kaya carbon emission prediction model, it is initially determined that the Kaya model will be used for regional carbon emission prediction. In order to optimize the sensitivity of the model to the temporal Characterization of the indicators, a carbon emission prediction model that incorporates the temporal characteristics of the data is set up. Lastly, the carbon emission is predicted according to the three typical scenarios analyzed according to the intensity of the macro-policy, and the year of carbon peak and the year of carbon peak are analyzed for the scenarios. Three typical scenarios are analyzed according to the intensity of macro policies, and carbon emissions are predicted under different scenarios, and the year in which each scenario reaches the carbon peak is analyzed, as well as the correlation with the implementation of related policies and energy use, with a view to providing support for the planning of the dual-carbon target value and the path of achieving it, as well as the formulation of related policies.