Regional Assessment of Current and Future States of GHGs Emissions: Impacts of Transportation Policy Scenarios

Abstract

Estimating the future state of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and air quality associated with transportation policies and infrastructure investments is key to the development of meaningful transportation and planning decisions. This study describes the design and application of an integrated transportation emission model for the prediction of GHGS in CO2eq in the Greater Montreal Region as a result of transport policy scenarios and Land use scenarios. For this purpose, a travel demand model linked with models for traffic assignment and emissions, was used to simulate GHG emissions in a base year (2008) and a horizon year (2031) while incorporating population and demographic projections. Various stakeholders were consulted in the development of future scenarios affecting land-use and transportation through a web-based survey and workshop.In the 2031 business as usual scenario, an average decrease of 30% in GHG emissions was estimated compared to the 2008 base case. This decrease is primarily attributed to projected improvements in vehicle technology. The modelling system was used to evaluate the impact of a 20% market penetration in electric vehicles, revealing significant reductions in GHG emissions across the region. Work is currently underway to estimate the emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and NO2 concentrations to assess air quality and individuals’ daily exposure by tracking activity locations and trajectories of the population and observe the level of reduction in daily exposures compared to the base case.This study is funded by a collaborative grant from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) and Ouranos.