Region and Voting in Britain, 1979-87: Territorial Polarization or Artifact?

Abstract

The increase in patterns of regional voting in Britain in the 1980s has stimulated much scholarly debate about the emergence of a North-South political divide. One interpretation sees regional voting as a territorial division occasioned by changing social, economic, and political conditions. This interpretation is often contrasted with the heretofore dominant functional view of British voting cleavages, that statewide social divisions, especially class, are the key to understanding electoral behavior. This paper tests systematically the territorial interpretation using data collected at the 1979, 1983, and 1987 general elections. Using multivariate analysis, we estimate how much of the regional variance in voting can be explained by social composition, political attitudes, attitudes toward party leaders, constituency effects, and local economic and political culture. The results indicate that territorial effects are small once the statewide effects of other variables are taken into account. The bulk of regional voting can be attributed to social compositional effects; there is only limited evidence for a territorial effect, and then only via local political culture.