Regime Changes and Interstate Conflict, 1816-1992

Abstract

Are domestic regime changes catalysts for interstate conflict? How does this relationship vary across different types of regime change? Do regime changes affect the vulnerability and aggressiveness of states equally in foreign policy? I investigate these questions using pooled data identifying three categories of regime change and militarized interstate conflict be havior for 171 states for the period 1816-1992. Specifically, I estimate the effects of regime changes on dispute and war initiation and target behavior during the first 15 years of the new regime's existence for two sample periods, 1816-1992 and 1946-1992. The analyses consistently demonstrate a strong link between autocratization and dispute initiation, and a less robust relationship between autocratization and war initiation. New autocratic regimes and dispute targets are positively related, though this link is contingent upon the operationalization of the dependent vari able. Autocratization and war target are negatively related when the de pendent variable is non-revisionism. Lastly, the analyses consistently suggest that new democracies are not more dispute or war prone, either as initiator or target.