Regieren nach oder getrieben von Umfrageergebnissen? Wie Bundes- und Landtagsabgeordnete die mediale Umfrageberichterstattung wahrnehmen

Abstract

This study analyzes how German political actors at the federal and state levels perceive the opportunities and risks of political poll reporting . A quantitative online survey of Members of the Bundestag and all German state parliaments shows that their perceptions are ambiva­lent: Although they all express great or very great interest in opinion polls, they have ambivalent views on how useful opinion research is for their political activities . With regard to the perceived benefit of poll reporting, the commissioning of opinion polls, and the desired frequency of media poll reporting, differences between the members of parliament surveyed are evident . When analyzing the internal and external use of the results of opinion polls our findings suggest that they are primarily used to strategically plan election cam­paigns and to identify popular topics . A large majority of members of parliament agree on the possible effects of poll reporting on voters . They view these effects predominantly criti­cally and are in favor of legal restrictions on publishing election polls .