Reforestation can compensate negative effects of climate change on amphibians

Abstract

Climate and land-use change are major drivers of biodiversity loss, but their combined effects are still unclear. Reforestation may compensate or reduce climate change impacts on species, but this hypothesis has not been tested yet. Here we quantify the additive and synergistic effects of forest change – in particular, reforestation – and climate changes on ten endemic and forest-dependent anurans of the Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot. We estimated climatic and habitat suitability for all species under historical and future (2050) conditions, using niche modeling and forest cover maps from a comprehensive land-use model. We contrasted a pessimistic land-use scenario, with little change in forest cover, with an optimistic scenario, with forest gain through restoration of “legal reserve” areas. Our models show that climate change will have species-specific effects on anurans, increasing climatic suitability for seven species, but decreasing for three. For these three species, we predict that forest gain can compensate the negative impact of climate change, increasing overall environmental suitability. These results reinforce the importance of ensuring reforestation and forest protection as a climate change adaptation strategy for biodiversity.