Reflexive Control as a Risk Factor for Using OSINT: Insights from the Russia–Ukraine Conflict

Abstract

Special governmental services, security services of leading companies, and private researchers rely on open-source intelligence (OSINT). With the development of the Internet and social networks, open-data intelligence is increasingly turning from a subtle art into a “mechanical” process—the more data, the better. OSINT professionals’ competence enables verification of information and minimizes the chances of deception unless the intention of the investigation and the data’s locale are previously known to their adversary. In this very case, the hunter can get into a trap dexterously rigged by an adversary. This article discusses the risks of disinformation through open sources in the context of the Soviet concept of “reflexive control”; that is, imposing unfavorable decisions on the enemy through the introduction of incorrect premises, exemplified by the experience of the Russian–Ukrainian conflict since 2014. The article evaluates the influence exerted on the governmental and military decisions by disinformation through open sources, examining several reported cases. Systematization of data on previous attempts at reflexive control, such as Russian information operations, can increase the accuracy of assessing the depth of an enemies’ reflexion, which helps to reveal their operational plans and predict further actions because disinformation often precedes other forms of aggression.