Reflectivity and velocity radar data assimilation for two flash flood events in central Italy: A comparison between 3D and 4D variational methods

Abstract

AbstractThe aim of this study is to provide an evaluation of the impact of two largely used data assimilation techniques, namely three‐ and four‐dimensional variational data assimilation systems (3D‐Var and 4D‐Var), on the forecasting of heavy precipitation events using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. For this purpose, two flash flood events in central Italy are analysed. The first occurred on September 14, 2012 during an Intensive Observation Period of the Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean experiment (HyMeX) campaign, while the other occurred on May 3, 2018. Radial velocity and reflectivity acquired by C‐band weather radars at Mt. Midia (central Italy) and San Pietro Capofiume (northern Italy), as well as conventional observations (SYNOP and TEMP), are assimilated into the WRF model to simulate these damaging flash flood events. In order to evaluate the impact of the 3D‐Var and 4D‐Var assimilation systems on the estimation of short‐term quantitative precipitation forecasts, several experiments are carried out using conventional observations with and without radar data. Rainfall evaluation is performed by means of point‐by‐point and filtering methodologies. The results point to a positive impact of the 4D‐Var technique compared to results without assimilation and with 3D‐Var experiments. More specifically, the 4D‐Var system produces an increase of up to 22% in terms of the Fractions Skill Score compared to 3D‐Var for the first flash flood event, while an increase of about 5% is achieved for the second event. The use of a warm start initialization results in a considerable reduction in the spin‐up time and a significant improvement in the rainfall forecast, suggesting that the initial precipitation spin‐up problem still occurs when using 4D‐Var.