Reflective thinking for intelligence analysis using a case study

Abstract

Despite the potential of reflective thinking to help intelligence analysts avoid the potential pitfalls for intelligence analytical errors, there has been limited research on how reflective thinking can be taught to analysts. This paper aims to fill the gap by discussing how reflective thinking is essential to and applicable for intelligence analysis in the field of epistemology. Drawing upon Dewey’s conception of reflective thinking as forming conclusions that are grounded in evidence and rationality, it is argued that reflective thinking enables analysts to guard against ambiguous, deceptive, contradictory and missing information, faulty assumptions, poor critical thinking, inadequate understanding of epistemology and policy bias. Using the case study of Iraq’s alleged Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), this paper explains how the concept of knowledge as ‘justified true belief’ can be used to promote reflective thinking in intelligence analysts.