Abstract
Peter Byass and colleagues raise questions about the recent, high-profile Global Burden of Disease estimates. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary. Language: en
Highlights
There is sparse description of the source database compiled for GBD-2010, and it is not publicly available
A good development across all the GBD-2010 work is the 95% uncertainty intervals calculated around the results
In regions where there are only scant data on diabetes mortality, such as in sub-Saharan Africa, the intervals are not appreciably wider than in other regions with much more comprehensive data, suggesting that the uncertainty intervals reflect more of the internalities of the modelling rather than the quality and quantity of source data
Summary
The GBD-2010 team, at the London launch event in December 2012, emphasised that GBD-2010 estimates supersede previous estimates for earlier periods and differ in some respects. The Ghana National Health Planning Unit (NHPU), in the late 1970s, developed a method whereby the health impact of different disease problems could be estimated quantitatively [6] This method estimated loss of healthy life due to death, disablement, and illness for about 50 causes, which were ranked. Rankings for anaemia and diarrhoea vary widely, and sickle cell disorders are ranked substantially higher in the 1980 NHPU estimates than in the GBD-2010 estimates, even though the prevalence of this genetically determined condition in West Africa cannot have changed markedly These latter examples illustrate the difficulties of translating various estimates into policy, being unsure whether differences reflect changes in methods and data, or real transitions
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