Reflections on Replacement

Abstract

In the United States, the total fertility rate is about 1.9 births per woman, down from a peak of 3.2 a generation ago and below the replacement level of 2.1 children. The proportion of women who will never have children has risen from 8% a generation ago to approximately 18% in 1993. The increase in the proportion of women in the labor force, a proximate explanation of the recent decline in intended fertility, is expected to continue. The demographic consequence is declining population with an older age structure. A pronatalist policy to alleviate this outcome, through monetary transfers from taxpayers to potential parents, is not only unlikely to succeed, it is politically unfeasible. An alternative solution, immediately effective but politically unpalatable, would be a generous immigration policy. Even with replacement level fertility, the population is destined to become much older. This inevitable aging of the population should be countered by appropriate institutional transformations: 1) with lower fertility, a larger proportion of women will be available to participate in the labor force to generate taxes needed to support a larger number of pensioners; 2) the institutional practice of ascribing a dependent status to anyone above a particular age can be changed; 3) concerns that an older labor force will have an obsolete education (and fewer years of it) can be countered by changing access to education. Yet, the most serious question is not merely the net reproduction rate, but producing adequate numbers of new adult citizens with responsibility and technical training in the modern world. The fundamental process of socializing children may be jeopardized by replacing the full-time parent with the hired care-giver, the peer group, and the television set. The attenuation of the bonds between parent and child may devalue the worth of childbearing itself. These portentous consequences deserve consideration.