Abstract

Objective: A higher reflection magnitude (RM), defined as the ratio of the backward and forward moving pressure wave, is associated with hypertension and incident heart failure. Whether RM is predictive of future hypertension and blood pressure (BP) increase is unknown. We assessed the association between RM, incident hypertension and BP increase over time. Design and method: Data of the Healthy Life in an Urban Setting study was analysed focusing on the six major ethnic groups living in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, aged between 18 and 70 years. Central arterial blood pressure was reconstructed from non-invasive continuous finger BP measurements. RM was calculated through wave separation analysis. Logistic regression models were created to investigate the association between RM and incident hypertension in the normotensive individuals. Linear regression was used to investigate the association between RM and changes in BP, which was corrected for the use of antihypertensive medication. All models were corrected for age, sex, ethnicity and baseline BP. The association between RM and delta SBP was additionally corrected for BMI. Results: A total of 5,779 participants were included for analysis, median age was 48 years (IQR 37-55), 54.6% were female and 67% were normotensive at baseline. In normotensive participants aged < 50 years at baseline, a 10% increase in RM resulted in an increased odds ratio (OR) of 1.37 (95% CI 1.09 – 1.72 for developing incident hypertension, which attenuated to 1.12 (95% CI 0.88 – 1.42) following adjustment for baseline SBP. Additionally, in individuals below 50 years an increase in RM of 10% was associated with a 1.77 mmHg (95% CI 1.00 – 2.53) increase in SBP (figure 1). No significant association between delta SBP and RM was found in the participants aged 50 or older. Conclusions: In a multi-ethnic cohort, RM is positively associated with the development of hypertension in individuals aged < 50 years. However, additional correction for baseline SBP attenuated this association. In addition, RM is predictive of SBP increase, with significant interaction for ethnicity.

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