Refining the Canegro model for improved simulation of climate change impacts on sugarcane

Abstract

Abstract Crop models can be used for predicting climate change impacts and exploring adaptation strategies, but their suitability for such tasks needs to be assessed. Although the DSSAT-Canegro model has been used widely for climate impact studies, some shortcomings have been revealed. The objectives were to improve and evaluate the capability of DSSAT-Canegro to predict crop responses to climate change. Model changes included improved simulation of elevated temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) impacts, and revised algorithms for tillering, respiration and crop water relations. After calibration, the refined model was tested against an independent set of experimental data, demonstrating acceptable simulation accuracy for aerial dry mass, stalk dry mass and stalk sucrose mass (RMSE = 8.4, 5.2 and 3.3 t/ha respectively). A multiple-site sensitivity analysis revealed that simulated responses by the refined model, of canopy formation, crop water use, crop water status and stalk dry mass to changes in rainfall, temperature and [CO2], were more realistic than those of the old model. Highest average simulated stalk mass was achieved at a temperature regime that was 3 °C warmer than current climate, with yield increases ranging from 0.7% (irrigated Ligne Paradis, Reunion Island) to 7% (rainfed Piracicaba, Brazil). Elevated [CO2] increased yields for rainfed production only (7% for La Mercy, South Africa and 6% for Piracicaba, [CO2] = 750 ppm), through reduced transpiration and improved crop water status. The study highlighted the need for improvements in simulating reduced growth of older crops, and [CO2] effects on transpiration. This study has delivered an improved Canegro model that represents plant processes and their interactions with climatic drivers more realistically, and can predict crop growth, water use and yields, for a wide range of climates, reasonably accurately. We propose that this revised Canegro model is included in a forthcoming release of the DSSAT Cropping System Model, for use in climate change impact studies.