Refined study of space debris collision warning techniques for LEO satellites

Abstract

Collision warning and avoidance is the main method of the satellite risk mitigation to the catalog debris. The warning precision and confidence are the main problems of the current collision warning work. This paper first put forward the problems on the collision warning work which include the data, model and error cope methods, and then introduced the collision warning work flow and development in NSSC (National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences). Some refined work were introduced from two aspects: the first is to improve orbit prediction precision, such as the TLE precision improvement, drag coefficient analysis, the space environment effect to the prediction accuracy; The other is to refine the collision probability computation, such as the covariance analysis. These studies could improve the warning confidence to some extent.