Refined assessment of flash flood vulnerability in Linzhi based on spatialization and GIS

Abstract

Flash floods are one of the most serious mountain disasters in Linzhi, China, pose a grave threat to the lives and property of the residents. However, the current regional vulnerability research cannot meet the needs of refined disaster prevention and mitigation in mountainous areas. Therefore, to address this knowledge gap, this study presented a vulnerability assessment framework base on spatialization technique along with the triangular fuzzy number-based analytic hierarchy process (TFN-AHP) and random forest (RF) model. To achieve this goal, an assessment system containing 12 indicators was constructed from the three perspectives of exposure, susceptibility and coping capacity. Firstly, factor spatialization is introduced in data preprocessing. Then TFN-AHP and the RF model were used to calculate the exposure, susceptibility, and coping capacity. Finally, the spatial distribution of the vulnerability throughout Linzhi was obtained. According to the results, the exposure, susceptibility and coping capacity in most areas are extremely low and low, accounting for 74.1%, 99% and 99%, respectively. The vulnerability is similar to the exposure that most of the regions have extremely low vulnerability and low vulnerability, accounting for 83.5%. The moderate vulnerability regions account for 8.5%, and the high vulnerability regions account for only 1%. The assessment results show that high-exposure areas mainly exhibit a linear distribution, and mainly include river valleys, cultivated land, and residential areas. Obviously, these areas are mainly distributed in the population and economic agglomeration areas and on low-altitude terrain. The distribution of high and comparatively high vulnerability zones, where economic and human activities are considerably high, are closely to the topography of the catchment. Thus, the results of this study provide scientific and technological evidence for resettlement, population distribution adjustment, and prevention and mitigation of flash floods in Linzhi.