Refined age distribution and demographic parameters estimation in nigeria: An indirect approach

Abstract

Poor census results in terms of age misreporting are becoming too worrisome to planners and policy makers in developing countries, predominantly in Nigeria. This poses serious challenge to the true estimate of basic demographic parameters viz; birth rate, death rate, dependency ratio and expectation of life at birth which are parts of yardstick for measuring growth, development and well being of a nation, hence this study. The study uses data on census which was conducted in 2006. Data analysis was done using Coale and Trussel method of estimating childhood mortality and Coale Demeny model life table. The results showed that male birth and death rates were higher than female birth and death rates. The expectation of life at birth was lower for males than females. Data adjustment using logit transformation through simulation reveals that there is gross age misstatement across all ages, but errors in age reporting are more pronounced among females than males. The patterns of either underreporting or over-reporting of ages are similar for both sexes. Also, there is tendency to under-report ages at ages 15 to 17 years and above 55 years, whereas, gross over-reporting of age are seen in ages between 18 and 55 years. Priority attention should be accorded through public campaign on the need to report true age to all preparatory census activities and population surveys on a regular basis so as to trim down problems of age mis- reporting for healthier demographic parameter estimation.