Abstract
Understanding the dynamics of peatland methane (CH4) emissions and quantifying sources of uncertainty in estimating peatland CH4 emissions are critical for mitigating climate change. The relative contributions of CH4 emission pathways through ebullition, plant-mediated transport, and diffusion together with their different transport rates and vulnerability to oxidation determine the quantity of CH4 to be oxidized before leaving the soil. Notwithstanding their importance, the relative contributions of the emission pathways have not been well characterized by experiments or modeling approaches. In particular, the ebullition process is more uncertain and can lead to large uncertainties in modeled CH4 emissions. To improve model simulations of CH4 emission and its pathways, we evaluated two model structures: 1) the Ebullition Bubble Growth volume threshold approach (EBG) and 2) the modified Ebullition Concentration Threshold approach (ECT) using CH4 flux and concentration data collected in a peatland in northern Minnesota, USA. When model parameters were constrained using observed CH4 fluxes, the CH4 emissions simulated by the EBG approach (RMSE = 0.53) had a better agreement with observations than the ECT approach (RMSE = 0.61). Further, the EBG approach simulated a smaller contribution from ebullition but more frequent ebullition events than the ECT approach. The EBG approach yielded greatly improved simulations of pore water CH4 concentrations, especially in the deep soil layers, compared to the ECT approach. When constraining the EBG model with both CH4 flux and concentration data in model-data fusion, uncertainty of the modeled CH4 concentration profiles was reduced by 78 to 86 % in comparison to constraints based on CH4 flux data alone. The improved model capability was attributed to the well-constrained parameters regulating the CH4 production and emission pathways. Our results suggest that the EBG modeling approach better characterizes CH4 emission and underlying mechanisms. Moreover, to achieve the best model results both CH4 flux and concentration data are required to constrain model parameterization.
Highlights
To improve model simulations of CH4 emission and its pathways, we evaluated two model structures: 1) the Ebullition Bubble Growth volume threshold approach (EBG) 35 and 2) the modified Ebullition Concentration Threshold approach (ECT) using CH4 flux and concentration data collected in a peatland in northern Minnesota, USA
The maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) for parameters varied between the two models (Table 4), with fCH4 slightly increased from 0.16 to 0.17 and Q10pro decreased from 3.0 to 2.69 in the EBG approach compared to the ECT approach
Understanding relative contributions of CH4 emission pathways is critical to mechanistically modeling future CH4 dynamics
Summary
Methane (CH4) emissions from wetlands constitute roughly one third of the global CH4 budget (Denman et al, 2007; 50 Saunois et al, 2020). The emission of CH4 is a major concern given its sustained-flux global warming potential (SGWP) of 45 (Neubauer and Megonigal, 2015). Methane emissions from wetlands cannot be estimated from production rates, as more than 50 % of methane can be oxidized during transport to the atmosphere in various ecosystems (Conrad and Rothfuss, 1991; Teh et al, 2005; Segarra et al, 55 2015). The global wetland CH4 oxidation sink has been estimated to be 40–70 % of CH4 production and it can dominate wetland CH4 cycling (Megonigal et al, 2004). The oxidation sink depends substantially on the CH4 emission pathways due to their different oxidation rates (Blodau, 2002)
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