Reference Dynamic Models for Space Debris Orbit Prediction

Abstract

In different orbit prediction scenarios, the dynamic models used are also different. For example, atmospheric drag is a very important perturbation force in the prediction of space debris in low orbits, but at mid-to-high orbits, the atmospheric drag can be ignored. To select the most suitable dynamic models for orbit prediction in different scenarios, this article provides a large number of orbits for different accuracy requirements and different orbit types. By comparing the prediction results with different dynamic models, the optimal dynamic models for various prediction scenarios are recommended. This work can serve as a reference and standard for the selection of reference dynamics models for different orbital types of space debris in orbit prediction.