Abstract
Although the deteriorating profitability of the US lodging industry has been repeatedly attributed to overcapacity, there has been little research on the causes of overcapacity. The authors suspect that this issue stems from the lack of a working definition of optimal capacity level. This study evaluates the optimum capacity of the US lodging industry based on the fundamental price theory, which posits that prices are determined through equilibrium. Results of the simultaneous equations model show that the industry has an incentive to maintain overcapacity because the outcomes of under-capacity are even less desirable. The uncertainty of demand further encourages overcapacity to some extent. Historical overcapacity cycles in the US lodging industry suggest that overcapacity seems to be an outcome of unexpected demand shocks, rather than the consequence of irrational overbuilding. Implications for the industry and suggestions for future research are presented along with the study findings.
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