Reexamining Rural Decline: How Changing Rural Classifications Affect Perceived Growth

Georgeanne M Artz,Peter F Orazem

doi:10.52324/001c.8316

Abstract

This article illustrates the commonly overlooked sample selection problem inherent in using rural classification methods that change over time due to population changes. Since fast-growing rural areas grow out of their rural status, using recent rural definitions excludes the most successful places from the analysis. Average economic performance of the areas remaining rural significantly understates true rural performance. We illustrate this problem using one rural classification system, rural-urban continuum codes. Choice of code vintage alters conclusions regarding the relative speed of rural and urban growth and can mislead researchers regarding magnitudes and signs of factors believed to influence growth.

Highlights

Initial work on this project began when Orazem served as Koch Visiting Professor of Business Economics, University of Kansas School of Business
The first column reports the regression results for the population growth equations using the 1970 definitions to define the sample of rural counties
Using end-of-period designations to define rural status significantly understates the economic performance of rural counties over the past three decades

Summary

DEFINING RURAL STATUS

Rural-urban continuum codes are one common method for classifying counties into categories based on population data from the U.S census and, for nonmetropolitan counties, based on geographic proximity to metropolitan areas. A number of classification schemes have been developed to distinguish rural from urban or metropolitan from nonmetropolitan areas. Each row corresponds to a 2000 rural-urban continuum code designation with the final column reporting the total number of counties in that 2000 category. Each column corresponds to a 1970 rural-urban continuum code with the bottom row reporting the total number of counties in that 1970 category. (See Appendix Table A1 for a list of these articles.) Most use rural-urban continuum codes to classify areas or individuals as rural/urban or metro/nonmetro, yet in most the timing of the classification scheme is not discussed. One-third of 1950 rural residents became urban dwellers without leaving home (Isserman 2001)

MEASURING RURAL GROWTH

REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF THE DETERMINANTS OF COUNTY

Findings

CONCLUSION