Reevaluating the Vote Market Hypothesis: Effects of Australian Ballot Reform on Voter Turnout

Abstract

This research reevaluates the effect of the Australian ballot reforms of the late nineteenth century on voter mobilization and turnout, challenging the “vote market hypothesis” regarding voter bribery by political parties. We propose that any subsequent declines in turnout were more directly affected by ballot design than by voter secrecy. In a regression analysis of voter turnout in statewide gubernatorial elections from 1870 to 1910, we find a significant decline in turnout in those states implementing “office bloc” reform ballots. However, the use of “party column” reform ballots did not lead to a decline in turnout. The results suggest that secrecy in voting does not fully explain the national turnout decline observed after passage.