Reduction of traditional food consumption in Brazilian diet: trends and forecasting of bean consumption (2007-2030).

Abstract

To identify changes in traditional dietary behaviour through the evaluation of trends in bean consumption among adults in Brazil between 2007 and 2017 and to estimate its projections up to 2030. Time-series analysis conducted with data from the Surveillance System for Protective and Risk Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Survey (Vigitel) between 2007 and 2017. Weekly consumption of beans was analysed. Prais-Winsten regression evaluated trends for the entire period of study (2007-2017) and in two periods of analyses (2007-2011 and 2012-2017) for the complete set of the population and stratified by socio-demographic characteristics. Estimated prevalence projections were calculated up to the year 2030 using its tendency from 2012 to 2017. Brazil. A probabilistic sample of 572 675 Brazilian adults aged ≥ 18 years. Changes in traditional dietary pattern were identified. Regular consumption of beans (≥ 5 d/week) presented a stable prevalence trend for the total population in the complete and the first analysed period, but a significant decrease in the second half (67·5 % to 59·5 %) among both genders, all age groups and educational levels (except for ≥12 years). The higher magnitude of regular consumption of beans will occur up to the year of 2025 for the total population (46·9 %), when it will be less frequent in the week. Reductions in the weekly consumption of beans may represent the weakness of a traditional food culture in a globalised food system. By 2025, regular consumption of beans will cease to be the predominant habit in the country.