Reduction of the Economic Risk by Adaptation Measures to Alleviate Heat Stress in Confined Buildings for Growing-Fattening Pigs Modelled by a Projection for Central Europe in 2030

Ivonne Anders,Günther Schauberger,Martin Schönhart,Johannes Baumgartner,Stefan J Hörtenhuber,Werner Knauder,Martin Piringer,Christian Mikovits,Isabel Hennig-Pauka,Werner Zollitsch,Konrad Andre,Leopold Kirner

doi:10.3390/agronomy12020248

Abstract

Economic risks for livestock production are caused by volatile commodities and market conditions, but also by environmental drivers such as increasing uncertainties due to weather anomalies and global warming. These risks impact the gross margin of farmers and can stimulate investment decisions. For confined pig and poultry production, farmers can reduce the environmental impact by implementing specific adaptation measures (AMs) to reduce heat stress. A simulation model driven by meteorological data was used to calculate indoor climate for 1981 to 2017. This dataset was extrapolated for a projection in the year 2030. The heat stress was calculated for a business-as-usual livestock building and for several AMs. For 2030, the expected value of the reduction of the gross margin was calculated by EUR 3.98 a−1 per animal place for the business-as-usual scenario. The results show that only energy-saving adaptation measures to reduce the inlet air temperature are appropriate to reduce the economic risk to the level of the year 1980 between EUR 0.03 a−1 and EUR 1.02 a−1 per animal place. The efficiency of other AMs to reduce heat stress is distinctly lower (between EUR 2.62 a−1 and EUR 3.80 a−1 per animal place). The results in this study can support the decision making of farmers concerning adaptation management and investments. It can inform agricultural policy design as well as technological development.

Highlights

Climate change is a significant threat for livestock production due to drought prone feed production and pasture growth [1,2,3], an increase in health risks and mortality from heat stress (HS) [4], as well as emergence of new diseases and transmitting vectors [5,6,7,8,9,10]
Neither the reported HS parameters for animals [14] nor macroeconomic figures on a national level can be directly used by farmers to make decisions, which of the available adaptation measures (AMs) should be selected to reduce the impact of climate change on farm animals
If the HS indices are above the line of identity, the resilience of the indoor climate is lower compared to the outdoor situation (REF, SD80%, SD60%, Inversion of activity/resting pattern (INV), and ventilation rate (VENT))

Summary

Introduction

Climate change is a significant threat for livestock production due to drought prone feed production and pasture growth [1,2,3], an increase in health risks and mortality from heat stress (HS) [4], as well as emergence of new diseases and transmitting vectors [5,6,7,8,9,10]. HS inside livestock buildings increased even in a temperate climate of Central Europe in the range between 0.9% and 6.4% per year between 1981 and 2017 [14] This has an impact on the economic risk (ER) for livestock production, which may further increase in the future. Schauberger et al [15] determined the loss in gross margin for a 10-year return period in an Austrian case study with EUR 0.27 per year and animal place in 1980 and a 20-fold increase to EUR 5.13 per year and animal place in 2030 These economic losses are caused by an increase in the feed conversion ratio, a lower growth rate, and other productivity traits such as increasing mortality [3,16,17,18,19]

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion