Reduction of Energy Intensity of Gross Regional Product: Opportunities and Limitations

Abstract

In the article, on the basis of model calculations, the possibilities and limitations of reducing the energy intensity of the Gross Regional Product (GRP) of the subject of the Russian Federation are investigated, provided that the region develops taking into account the requirements of the Energy Strategy of Russia for the period up to 2035. The calculations were carried out on interrelated models of the economy and energy of the Samara region, where scenarios for the region’s energy-efficient development were worked out, taking into account the targets of state programs for energy saving and energy efficiency development, declared in the Energy Strategy. As a result of research, it has been established that economic growth is the most important condition for reducing the energy intensity of GRP, and, the higher economic growth, the greater its contribution to the decrease in the energy intensity of GRP. It is also shown that a 40% reduction in GRP within the period of 2018–2035 is feasible only with the average annual economic growth of at least 5%, even with the absolute implementation of all sectoral programs on energy saving and energy efficiency development. Similar conclusions are true for Russian economy as a whole. If Russian economy develops at an average annual rate of less than 5%, then the main target indicator of the Energy Strategy - a decrease in the energy intensity of GDP by more than forty percent by 2035 compared to 2007 will be fundamentally unattainable.