Reduction method for multi-period time series scenarios of wind power

Abstract

In the planning and operation of power systems containing wind power, it is of great significance to use a small number of representative wind power time series scenarios to accurately portray the stochastic characteristics of wind power. With the increase of the number of scenarios, how to form representative typical scenarios to balance computational efficiency and accuracy is an urgent problem to be solved. In this study, a bi-directional optimization method is proposed to generate daily wind power time series scenarios based on a single-period optimal scenario generation strategy and a multi-period scenario reduction strategy. First, the Wasserstein probability distance index is used to form a scenario model that is best approximated to the probability distribution of wind power, and the optimal scenarios of each period are generated. Secondly, a wind power scenario reduction strategy that integrates spatial distance and stochastic features is proposed. The improved taboo search method is used to selectively connect the representative scenarios of each period to form the representative daily wind power time series scenarios. Finally, the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed wind power time series scenario generation method are verified by simulations.