Reducing vulnerability to the climate change - Reversibility and transformation adopting in a hydro-economic model

Abstract

Reversibility and transformation processes increase the adaptive capacity of water resource systems to achieve desirable equilibria. Considering each process in isolation can limit potential to increase system adaptive capacity. This study aims to test these processes in reducing vulnerability to climate change in the water resource system of Lake Tashk-Bakhtegan in the south of Iran. By re-allocating water among economic activities based on risk management, return and economic risk optimization, and income equality, the sensitivity of the system can be reduced to enhance the adaptive capacity. Some barriers to structural changes in the system (such as social resistance and lack of the essential infrastructure, organizations and institutions) may restrict the transformation process. The restrictions are suggested to be managed by evaluating, prioritizing, and implementing adaptive strategies underpinned by Post-Modern Portfolio Theory (PMPT). A system dynamics model analyzes different strategies through simulation. Our modeling results showed that the greatest amount of water could be effectively saved by adaptation in the agricultural sector, while economic performance and stability were maintained by supporting service and industrial sectors through water re-allocation. As a result, the reversibility process for lake restoration and the transformation process to bring the system to a new level of equilibrium held the potential to create stable socioeconomic and ecological conditions in the basin.