Reducing Uncertainty to Ensure Future Asset Performance

Abstract

Guest editorial Over the past 5 to 10 years, there has been an increasing focus in the offshore oil and gas industry on predicting and quantifying an asset’s expected production performance. This “performance risk” has always been considered one of the key risk factors for an offshore development, in addition to subsurface, economic, safety, and environmental risks. However, with the shift of offshore developments to harsher environments and deeper water, the traditional method of estimating expected availability and production performance figures, using extrapolated data from previous experience, is increasingly considered insufficient. With increased investment required for some of the ambitious new offshore developments (floating liquefied natural gas [FLNG], Arctic, and ultradeep developments), there is growing pressure to address any risk to the bottom line and understand how the impact of changing environments and operating conditions will affect economic return and expected revenue. As a result, most operators are now adopting more robust methodologies, such as using simulation technology tools, to evaluate and predict expected performance. Several key areas in the offshore industry illustrate where these “new” production risk factors are especially relevant. The subsea industry, in particular, continues to undergo rapid transformation as it seeks to exploit untapped reserves. Subsea fields exploited since the late 1990s in the North Sea, US Gulf of Mexico (GOM), and offshore Brazil are now considered areas using proven technology and their performance is well understood. However, pushing subsea developments into ultradeep locations does result in additional performance risk. The 2010 Macondo accident in the GOM clearly showed that the potential impact and escalation of subsea failures or incidents can be dramatically increased because of high water depths. The ultradeep environment will affect potential diagnostics options (Is there a leak? Where is it coming from?), and mitigation and repair options (What intervention activities are possible? Which vessels are available at short notice?). A relatively minor failure, which could have been addressed quickly by divers or remotely operated vehicles in shallower waters, can potentially result in long well or even field outages. In addition, public scrutiny concerning any potential environmental impact would make it likely that operators would now opt for conservative decisions (e.g., a shutdown) in the event of any uncertainty about potential subsea leaks or failures.