Reducing metal thefts through the use of local ordinances: An evaluation of an impromptu Market Reduction Approach in St. Louis, MO

Abstract

This study evaluates the effectiveness of a local ordinance targeting rising residential metal thefts in St. Louis, MO. The ordinance addresses the ‘disposable’ component in Clarke’s (1999) CRAVED model and indirectly uses a Market Reduction Approach by limiting anonymous cash sales of certain scrap metals. Interrupted time-series analysis is employed to examine weekly pre- and post-intervention levels of metal thefts. Control factors include copper prices, local foreclosure and unemployment rates, and local average temperatures. Coefficients of the time-series analysis indicate a significant decline of scrap metal thefts after implementation of the ordinance. This decline is far greater (about 50 per cent) than for typical larcenies and burglaries (about 15 per cent). The results of this study suggest that prohibiting anonymous cash purchases of scrap metal is likely a viable and cost-effective way of achieving significant reductions in scrap metal thefts in markets where the bulk of thefts occur in residential settings.