Reducing future air-pollution-related premature mortality over Europe by mitigating emissions from the energy sector: assessing an 80 % renewable energies scenario

Abstract

Abstract. Overall, European air quality has worsened in recent decades as a consequence of increased anthropogenic emissions, in particular from the power generation sector. The evidence of the effects of atmospheric pollution (and particularly fine particulate matter, PM2.5) on human health is now unquestionable; it is mainly associated with cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, along with morbidity and even mortality. These effects may even strengthen in the future as a consequence of climate penalties and future changes in the projected population. For all these reasons, the main objective of this contribution is the estimation of the annual excess premature deaths (PD) associated with PM2.5 in the present (1991–2010) and future (2031–2050) European population using non-linear exposure–response functions. The endpoints included are lung cancer (LC), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), low respiratory infections (LRI), ischaemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (CEV) and other non-communicable diseases (other NCD). PM2.5 concentrations come from coupled chemistry–climate regional simulations under present and future (RCP8.5) scenarios. The cases assessed include the estimation of the present incidence of PD (PRE-P2010), the quantification of the role of a changing climate in PD (FUT-P2010) and the importance of changes in the population projected for the year 2050 in the incidence of excess PD (FUT-P2050). Two additional cases (REN80-P2010 and REN80-P2050) evaluate the impact on premature mortality rates of a mitigation scenario in which 80 % of European energy production comes from renewable sources. The results indicate that PM2.5 accounts for nearly 895 000 (95 % confidence interval (95 % CI) 725 000–1 056 000) annual excess PD over Europe, with IHD being the largest contributor to premature mortality associated with fine particles in both present and future scenarios. The case that isolates the effects of a climate penalty (FUT-P2010) estimates a variation of +0.2 % in mortality rates over the whole domain. However, under this scenario, the incidence of PD over central Europe will benefit from a decrease in PM2.5 (−2.2 PD/100 000 inhabitants), while in eastern (+1.3 PD/100 000 inhabitants) and western (+0.4 PD/100 000 inhabitants) Europe, PD will increase due to increased PM2.5 levels. The changes in the projected population (FUT-P2050) will lead to a large increase in annual excess PD (1 540 000, 95 % CI 1 247 000–1 818 000; +71.96 % with respect to PRE-P2010 and +71.67 % with respect to FUT-P2010) due to the ageing of the European population. Last, the mitigation scenario (REN80-P2050) demonstrates that the effects of a mitigation policy of increasing the ratio of renewable sources in the energy mix could lead to a decrease of over 60 000 (95 % CI 48 500–70 900) annual PD for the year 2050 (a decrease of −4 % in comparison with the no-mitigation scenario FUT-P2050). In spite of the uncertainties inherent in future estimations, this contribution reveals the need of governments and public entities to take action and choose air pollution mitigation policies.