Reducing error in small-area estimates of multi-source forest inventory by multi-temporal data fusion

Abstract

Abstract Since the 1990s, forest resource maps and forest variable estimates for small areas have been produced by combining national forest inventory (NFI) field plot data, optical satellite images and numerical map data. A non-parametric $k$-NN method has frequently been employed. In Finland, such multi-source NFI (MS-NFI) forest variable estimates for municipalities have been produced eight times. A relatively large variation has been observed between subsequent estimates. In this study, a large-scale evaluation of small-area estimates from an MS-NFI conducted in 2013 was carried out in comparison with pure NFI field data-based estimates and error estimates. The proportion of municipalities with significant differences was larger than expected, e.g. over 10% for the mean volume, which indicates systematic error in the small-area estimates. A multi-temporal data fusion combining MS-NFI estimators from three time points—2011, 2013 and 2015—was tested as a means to improve single time point MS-NFI estimates of the mean volumes of growing stock and of tree species groups. A generalized least squares (GLS) technique and unweighted averaging were tested. The improvement was small but consistent when validated against the NFI field data-based estimates for the municipalities. The unweighted averaging worked nearly as well as a GLS estimator.