Abstract
Previous research has identified that climate change mitigation policies could increase demand for resources perceived as critical, because these are used in many renewable energy technologies. This study assesses how reducing the extraction and use of fossil fuels could affect the supply of (i) elements jointly produced with fossil fuels and (ii) elements jointly produced with a host that is currently mainly used in fossil fuel supply chains. Several critical resources are identified for which supply potential from current sources is likely to decline. Some of these, e.g. germanium and vanadium, have uses in low-carbon energy systems. Renewable energy transitions can thus simultaneously increase demand and reduce supply of critical elements. The problem is greatest for technology groups in which by-products are more difficult to recycle than the host. Photovoltaic cell technology stands out as one such group. Phasing out fossil fuels has the potential to reduce both the supply potential (i.e. primary flow) and recoverable resources (i.e. stock) of materials involved in such technology groups. Further studies could examine possibilities to increase recovery rates, extract jointly produced resources independently of hosts and how the geographical distribution of by-product supply sources might change if fossil fuel extraction is scaled back.
Highlights
It is widely acknowledged that mitigating climate change will necessitate the reduction of the use of fossil fuels and the increased use of renewable energy (GEA 2012; IEA 2017)
Previous research has shown that low-carbon energy transitions can increase scarcity of critical elements used in technologies to convert or store energy because of demand increase
This study shows that low-carbon energy transitions can increase scarcity for elements that are (i) produced jointly with a resource that is mainly used within the fossil fuel supply chain, and (ii) recovered from fossil fuels when they are extracted, refined, or combusted
Summary
It is widely acknowledged that mitigating climate change will necessitate the reduction of the use of fossil fuels and the increased use of renewable energy (GEA 2012; IEA 2017). Previous research has examined how the production. Both supply- and demand-side factors contribute to making some metals critical (Graedel and Reck 2016; Schrijvers et al 2020), for example: whether production sites or reserves of the material are geographically concentrated; whether the metal is produced jointly with a host resource; whether substitutes are inferior or non-existent; or whether one or several applications of the metal have high economic, social, or military significance. Previous research has shown that energy transitions induced by climate mitigation objectives will increase total metal demand, since renewable energy is more material intensive than fossil energy (Watari et al 2019). By-products are recovered from host resources after these have been extracted. As a result of joint resource production, host resource supply (and host demand for it) will affect
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