Reduced Southern Ocean warming enhances global skill and signal-to-noise in an eddy-resolving decadal prediction system

Abstract

The impact of increased model horizontal resolution on climate prediction performance is examined by comparing results from low-resolution (LR) and high-resolution (HR) decadal prediction simulations conducted with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). There is general improvement in global skill and signal-to-noise characteristics, with particularly noteworthy improvements in the eastern tropical Pacific, when resolution is increased from order 1° in all components to order 0.1°/0.25° in the ocean/atmosphere. A key advance in the ocean eddy-resolving HR system is the reduction of unrealistic warming in the Southern Ocean (SO) which we hypothesize has global ramifications through its impacts on tropical Pacific multidecadal variability. The results suggest that accurate representation of SO processes is critical for improving decadal climate predictions globally and for addressing longstanding issues with coupled climate model simulations of recent Earth system change.