Abstract
BackgroundModal shifts in transport may reduce overall road injuries. Cyclist junior high school students are at a high risk of road injuries while commuting in Japan, and injuries among junior high school students could be reduced if the cyclists switch to other transport modes.MethodsWe estimated the change in the incidence of road deaths and serious injuries while commuting in months with heavy snowfall, when cyclists are likely to switch to other transport modes. Using police data on the monthly number of road injuries while commuting among junior high school students in Japan between 2004 and 2013 and corresponding population statistics and snowfall data, we calculated the monthly injury rate (number of deaths and serious injuries divided by population) at the prefecture level. We conducted Poisson regression analysis to estimate the change in the rate in months with a snowfall of ≥100 cm, compared to months without snowfall.ResultsA total of 3,164 deaths and serious injuries occurred during 2004 to 2013. The injury rate among cyclists was almost zero in months with a snowfall of ≥100 cm. That among cyclists and pedestrians in these months was reduced by 68% (95% confidence interval, 43–82%).ConclusionIn months with heavy snowfall, road injuries while commuting were reduced due to the near-elimination of cycling injuries among junior high school students in Japan. Switching from cycling to other transport modes would reduce overall road injuries among this population, and inducing modal shifts can be an important tool for road safety.
Highlights
IntroductionThe share of public transport use was inversely associated with the incidence of road injuries in Greater Melbourne, Australia.[21] an increase in public transport use was associated with a decrease in the incidence of road deaths.[10] because of limitations in the study design or population, none of these studies prove that modal shifts reduce road injuries at the regional or national level
Every year, over 1.3 million people die and over 54 million people are injured on roads, and road injury is the leading cause of death among people aged 5–29 years.[1,2] To address this enormous burden of road injuries, the United Nations launched the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020, ‘with a goal to stabilize and reduce the forecast level of road traffic fatalities around the world’,3 which was succeeded by the Second Decade of Action for Road Safety 2021–2030, ‘with a goal of reducing road traffic deaths and injuries by at least 50 per cent’ during the period.[4]
The main transport modes for school commuting are walking, cycling, and public transport.[22,24]
Summary
The share of public transport use was inversely associated with the incidence of road injuries in Greater Melbourne, Australia.[21] an increase in public transport use was associated with a decrease in the incidence of road deaths.[10] because of limitations in the study design or population, none of these studies prove that modal shifts reduce road injuries at the regional or national level. Modal shifts in transport may reduce overall road injuries. Cyclist junior high school students are at a high risk of road injuries while commuting in Japan, and injuries among junior high school students could be reduced if the cyclists switch to other transport modes
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