Reduced rainfall explains avian declines in an unfragmented landscape: incremental steps toward an empty forest?

Abstract

Declines of formerly widespread bird species are being increasingly reported, with habitat loss, agricultural intensification and reduced rainfall frequently implicated. We report on temporal changes in the occurrence of birds over 21 years within continuous forest in the Warrumbungle Mountains to evaluate the influence of rainfall variability on changes in the abundance of birds and species occurence. During this period, six common insectivores declined significantly (Superb Fairy-wren, Malurus cyaneus; White-throated Gerygone, Gerygone albogularis; Grey Shrike-thrush, Colluricincla harmonica; Rufous Whistler, Pachycephala rufiventris; Grey Fantail, Rhipidura albiscapa; Eastern Yellow Robin, Eopsaltria australis). Rainfall significantly predicted the abundance of 13 of the 25 most common species, with the rainfall period of both July-December of the previous year and the combined effects of six years of January-June rainfall correlated with changes in the abundance of birds. Prolonged drought has likely driven food shortages (especially of litterdwelling arthropods), with changes in avian community composition reflecting changes in food availability. Thus, avian declines in southern Australia may reflect the combined effects of habitat fragmentation and other landscape-scale changes in concert with larger-scale ecological processes driven by decreased rainfall. Improved linkages between forested and agricultural landscapes at the regional scale are needed to buffer against local fluctuations in resources.