Reduced error and uncertainty in analysis and forecasting in the Southern Hemisphere through assimilation of PANSY radar observations from Syowa Station: A midlatitude extreme cyclone case

Abstract

AbstractThe sparse distribution of the observing network over the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere reduces the accuracy of regional atmospheric circulation (re)analysis and weather forecasting. Using operational medium‐range ensemble forecasts, we compared the forecast skill among forecast centres regarding a midlatitude cyclone close to western Australia on 17 December 2017. At forecast day 4.5, a large ensemble spread in an upper‐level trough over western Australia, which had travelled from coastal Antarctica, caused large uncertainty and error in the predicted position of the midlatitude cyclone. Using an ensemble data assimilation system and the Atmospheric General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator and the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter Experimental Ensemble Reanalysis version 2 (ALERA2), we conducted an operational forecast experiment to investigate the impact on ALERA2 and its forecast result of assimilation of 1‐hourly horizontal wind speed observational data from the PANSY radar located at the Japanese Syowa Station in Antarctica. An observing system experiment revealed that incorporation of PANSY radar data improved the reproducibility of atmospheric parameters in the troposphere and lower stratosphere as initial conditions for forecasting. To investigate the impact of PANSY radar data on forecast skill regarding the midlatitude cyclone, 63‐member ensemble forecast experiments were conducted using analysis data both with and without PANSY data as initial conditions. Comparison of the forecast results from the ensemble forecast experiments confirmed that incorporation of PANSY radar data reduced the ensemble spread and error in the upper troposphere over the Antarctic region as initial conditions, which enhanced the accuracy of the prediction of the positions of the upper‐level trough and surface cyclone over western Australia at forecast day 4.5. These experiments suggest that the PANSY radar represents an observing system suitable for continuous improvement in forecast skill of the atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere.