Reduced caseloads improve probation outcomes

Abstract

Probation practitioners argue that large caseloads limit their effectiveness, but prior research has not supported that assertion. In fact, with exceptions, strong studies of small caseload intensive probation supervision have produced undesirable findings: no reduction in recidivism and increased technical revocations. However, probation standards and practices have changed considerably since this earlier research, suggesting that new studies may yield different results. This study introduced reduced caseloads (approximately 54 medium- to high-risk probationers per officer) into an agency with officers fully trained in implementing evidence-based practices, a combination of supervision strategies based on known predictors of criminal recidivism. We evaluated the intervention's effect on recidivism and technical revocations of probation using a quasi-experimental design (difference-in-differences). We used survival analysis to estimate that the smaller caseload reduced the rate of recidivism by roughly 30%; technical violations increased by 4%. We conclude that reduced caseloads in agencies using modern supervision practices reduce recidivism.