Reduced ‘Border effects’, Free Trade Agreements and international trade

Abstract

AbstractThis paper studies the impact of ‘border effects’ and the implementation of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on international trade in manufacturing goods. We take advantage of the time dimension in a panel setting to capture the rise of trade in final goods and intermediate inputs that are a distinguishing feature of Global Value Chains (GVCs). Our results suggest that reduced border effects account for the bulk of the increase in international manufacturing trade. The cost of a national border is estimated to have fallen by around 4.3% per year for trade in final goods and 2.8% for trade in intermediate inputs. Moreover, we show that it is important to control for different border effects for final goods and intermediate inputs when estimating the trade impact of FTAs in gravity equations. With this enhancement, our results suggest that FTAs increase trade in final goods by 52% after ten years, with no statistically significant difference for trade in intermediate inputs. We also find evidence that FTAs that more comprehensive FTAs like the European Union have a greater trade effect than the average FTA.