Redemocratization and Transition Elections: A Comparison of Spain and Portugal

Abstract

Authoritarian regimes are ever present but not everlasting. On a global level, they seem always be with us, but as individual units they emerge and disintegrate. Until recently, the disintegration authoritarian regimes received less scholarly attention than it deserved, in part because authoritarian regimes were thought be relatively resilient and in part because authoritarianism became associated with a specific regime type in the 1960s, when so many classic examples authoritarian rule were still intact.' Struck with impressive policy flexibility, extraordinary persistence,''2 and their capacity not only adapt to but the course of social change,3 scholars who studied authoritarian regimes were unlikely address the question disintegration at all. All this has changed as examples redemocratization proliferate and scholars scurry explain why. Though most the current research in this area focuses on the causes redemocratization, I focus here on the democratic aftermath authoritarian rule. Specifically, I am interested in what might be called elections, the first national electoral contests which follow the restoration political freedoms.4 This is a neglected but important area investigation, for the party that wins the transition election plays a key role in the consolidation democracy, often writing a new constitution, deciding the fate the old guard, and rewriting the rules the game. What are the factors that determine the type party that first gains control the redemocratized state? This is the central question that motivates this research.