Redefining Safe Streets through a New Child Pedestrian Demand/Exposure Model ( breakout presentation )

Abstract

Background Child pedestrians are one of the most vulnerable road user types due to physical and developmental disadvantages and a lack of a protective covering from a vehicle. This combination of vulnerabilities results in poor safety outcomes. However, there are two types of locations in which child pedestrians are unsafe: (1) those locations that are unsafe as evidenced by a prevalence of crashes and (2) those locations that are so unsafe that there are no pedestrians using them, and therefore no crashes. In order to understand if an area is truly safe, or if it is so unsafe that it is being underutilized, we need to know where trips are occurring and also where they are being held back. Aim The purpose of this work is to create a model that accounts for both child pedestrian exposure and child pedestrian demand that remains latent. Currently, a lack of adequate pedestrian exposure modeling precludes our ability to improve safety outcomes, because a problem that cannot be correctly identified and defined cannot be solved. Method The multilevel spatial model utilizes population as a base, socioeconomics, demographics, crime, and land use as a secondary-tier, and pedestrian infrastructure as a third-tier. This spatial syntax enhancement is implemented through GIS while being checked and calibrated against real-world safety conditions. Once calibrated with child pedestrian crashes, injuries, and fatalities, this tool becomes a powerful predictor of poor safety outcomes and a holistic identifier of problem areas in our cities. Results By accounting for both exposure and latent demand, we can now successfully determine if a location is truly safe for pedestrians, truly unsafe, or so unsafe that it appears to be safe. Conclusions Practitioners and researchers alike can use this tool to enhance safety for varying populations. By better understanding where safety issues persist in our urban transportation systems, we can then work towards solving those issues, thereby enhancing safety for some of the most vulnerable road users.