Redefining “Old Age” and “Dependency” in East Asia: Is “Prospective Aging” A More Helpful Concept?

Abstract

East Asian societies are currently some of the most rapidly aging in the world. Projections of the traditional old‐age dependency ratios (OADR) present a daunting future of the size of the aged population both in absolute terms and, in the context of low fertility, relative to the future workforce. Recently scholars, especially Sanderson and Scherbov, have argued that OADR is inadequate as a guide to future levels of dependency based, as it is, on past scenarios of “old age” and “dependency” rather than current and future notions. Indeed, in the context of rapidly aging settings in East Asia with developmental welfare states, the OADR has probably never been truly relevant, is profoundly unhelpful and could lead to policy paralysis. As such, Sanderson and Scherbov suggested a new method to measure aging prospectively to take into account both improved life expectancy and health across the life‐course. We introduce these new measurements as a possible new, more radical and optimistic way to think about aging in East Asia. These measurements more accurately demonstrate the “boundaries” to “dependency” and, hence, demonstrate the potential room for social policy interventions to maximize “active aging” for the population currently, perhaps incorrectly, defined as “old” and “dependent”.