Red blood cell distribution width predicts long-term mortality in critically ill patients with acute kidney injury: a retrospective database study

Abstract

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a serious complication in the intensive care unit (ICU), which may increase the mortality of critically ill patients. The red blood cell distribution width (RDW) has proved useful as a predictor of short-term prognosis in critically ill patients with AKI. However, it remains unknown whether RDW has a prognostic value of long-term all-cause mortality in these patients. The data of 18279 critically ill patients with AKI at first-time hospital admission were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database. The tertiles of the RDW values were used to divide subjects into three groups, namely RDW < 13.6% for the low RDW group, 13.6% ≤ RDW < 15.2% for the middle RDW group and RDW ≥ 15.2% for the high RDW group. Demographic data, mortality, 4-year survival time and severity scale scores were compared among groups. The Kaplan-Meier analysis and the Cox regression analysis were performed to assess the impact of RDW on all-cause mortality in AKI patients. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was done to evaluate the prognostic value of RDW on the long-term outcome of critically ill patients with AKI. The median age of the enrolled subjects was 65.6 years. AKI patients with a higher RDW value had significantly shorter survival time and higher death rate. By the Kaplan-Meier analysis, patients in the higher RDW group presented significantly shorter survival time and higher death rate. The Cox regression model indicated RDW as an independent risk factor of all-cause mortality of AKI patients (HR 1.219, 95% CI, 1.211 to 1.228). By the ROC analysis, RDW appeared more efficient in predicting long-term prognosis as compared with conventional severity scales. The AUC of RDW (95% CI, 0.712 to 0.725) was significantly higher than other severity scale scores. In conclusion, RDW is positively correlated to survival time of 4-year follow-up in critically ill patients with AKI, and RDW is an independent prognostic factor of long-term outcomes of these patients.