Abstract
In China, the number of end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) has reached an era of exponential growth because of continuous vehicle sales. The Chinese government has guided trends in the ELV recycling industry by implementing various recycling policies and expects most ELVs to be legally treated by licensed companies. The effects of subsidy policies are remarkable, and it was found that the effective adjustment of the subsidy is beneficial in increasing the recovery rate of ELVs without additional financial burden. Just as objects have their own end-of-life laws, different vehicle types have different life distribution curves and they are slightly influenced by government policies, especially subsidy policies. The aim of the study is to establish the logistics distribution functions for the passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles on the basis of the service years of 220,000 ELVs from 2012 to 2016 in Shanghai, and use a statistical model to predict and analyze the future trend of the number of the ELVs in China. Forecasts show that the number of ELVs in China will surpass 10 million in 2023.
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