Abstract

In this paper we present some recent work on typhoon prediction with a high resolution global model. The emphasis of this paper is on typhoon recurvature. Here we include examples of successful typhoon recurvature track forecasts made from a very high resolution global spectral model. The main objective of this study however is to go beyond the forecasts, i.e. to interrogate the history tapes and to diagnose residue-free budgets of the divergence and vorticity. The premise of this paper is that the recurvature of the typhoons depends on both the usual advection of vorticity by the layer mean winds and the advection of divergence in the outflow layers of the storm.

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