Recursive prediction of chaotic time series

Abstract

Considerable progress has been made in recent years in the analysis of time series arising from chaotic systems. In particular, a variety of schemes for the short-term prediction of such time series has been developed. However, hitherto all such algorithms have used batch processing and have not been able to continuously update their estimate of the dynamics using new observations as they are made. This severely limits their usefulness in real time signal processing applications. In this paper we present a continuous update prediction scheme for chaotic time series that overcomes this difficulty. It is based on radial basis function approximation combined with a recursive least squares estimation algorithm. We test this scheme using simulated data and comment on its relationship to adaptive transversal filters, which are widely used in conventional signal processing.