Recurrent venous thromboembolism after surgery-provoked versus unprovoked thromboembolism.

Abstract

The incidence of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) varies depending on the nature of the initial provoking risk factor(s). To compare the incidence and time course of recurrent VTE after unprovoked VTE vs. VTE provoked by nine different types of surgery. Retrospective analysis of linked California hospital and emergency department discharge records. Between 1997 and 2007, all surgery-provoked VTE cases had a first-time VTE event diagnosed within 60 days after undergoing a major operation. The incidence of recurrent VTE was compared during specified follow-up periods by matching each surgery-provoked case with three unprovoked cases based on age, race, gender, VTE event, calendar year and co-morbidity. The 4-year Kaplan-Meier cumulative incidence of recurrent VTE was 14.7% (95%CI: 14.2-15.1) in the matched unprovoked VTE group vs. 7.6% (CI: 7.0-8.2) in 11 797 patients with surgery-provoked VTE (P < 0.001). The overall risk reduction was 48%, which ranged from 64% lower risk (P < 0.001) after coronary bypass surgery to 25% lower risk (P = 0.06) after disc surgery. The risk of recurrent VTE 1-5 years after the index event was significantly lower in the surgery group (HR = 0.47, CI: 0.41-0.53). Within the surgery-provoked group, the risk of recurrent VTE was similar in men and women (HR = 1.0, CI: 0.8-1.3). The risk of recurrent VTE after surgery-provoked VTE was approximately 50% lower than after unprovoked VTE, confirming the view that provoked VTE is associated with a lower risk of recurrent VTE. However, there was appreciable heterogeneity in the relative risk of recurrent VTE associated with different operations.